It would seem like an obvious conclusion: in order to promote your movie, you want to have lots of people talking about it. The more early buzz, the better performance for your film. However, this simple formula does not always work. The problem of over-exposure can be explained with a more complicated reading of the Social Learning Theory.
The Social Learning Theory basically suggests that our relationship with the media is, in great part, a result of imitation. Unlike the uses and gratifications theory, which argues that we choose media in order to meet a certain need, Social Learning focuses on personal experience and observed behavior. These form an 'outcome expectation' that then informs our decision-making. For example, if we hear people talking about how much they enjoyed the new Pixar movie, we may be inclined to go see it, now having the expectation that it will be a fun movie to watch.
This theory is particularly interesting when considered with the strategy of movie buzz.
This article suggests that the effects of the Social Learning theory are not so simple: hearing good things about a movie does not promote it indefinitely. The buzz may peak early, leaving people bored with the idea by the time the movie is actually released. There also may be a backlash in buzz as a result of too much excitement. This is what almost happened with 'Inception,' and the article was written before the movie came out when it seemed like the incredible expectations attached to the movie would lead to disappointment. Ultimately, 'Inception' avoided that fate; either the hype did not cross over to a harmful area, or the movie was strong enough to hold up against its glowing reviews. However, the implications of this idea still persist. As a personal example, I remember finally convincing a few relatives to watch 'The Pirates of the Caribbean: The Curse of the Black Pearl' a couple years after it had been released. Having heard wonderful things about this movie, my relatives were extremely disappointed when they found the movie fun and entertaining enough, but not anything incredible. Instead of dismissing the movie as good but forgettable, though, they actively hated it. The gap between their expectations and their experience caused them to become more angry than they ever would have been if the movie hadn't been hyped.
This interpretation of the Social Learning Theory shows that while other's opinions are very important in the decisions we make regarding media, they also color our expectations and make our personal outcome hard to predict. The relationship between early buzz and eventual reception are quite complex; it seems that in promotion, media distributors will have to strike just the right balance of excitement in moderation.
Picture: http://www.filmofilia.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/Inception-Poster.jpg
Article: http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/movies/2010/07/inception-chris-nolan-review-good.html